Will the US Dollar Fall Over the Next 12 Months?
#377: Will the US Dollar Fall Over the Next 12 Months?
In this video:
00:26 – A great question from someone on my webinar
01:12 – Some examples from the last 17 years
02:09 – The EUR/USD got very high in 2008
03:05 – The GBP/USD went over 2.0000
04:10 – What does this tell you as a trader?
Will the U.S. dollar decline over the next 12 months, and if so, how do you trade it? Let’s talk about that and more, right now.
Hi, forex traders. Andrew Mitchem here, at the Forex Trading Coach, with video and podcast number 377.
A great question from someone on my webinar
Now, I held a webinar just this morning and it was a free webinar for the public to attend. I had a great question asked on that webinar, and I’d like to read it for you and then answer the question. The question was, “Hey, Andrew. Look, there’s a lot of talk these days about the U.S. dollar, and that it’s going to decline over the next 12 months. Which U.S. dollar pairs would you recommend using to take advantage of this potential decline?” Fair enough question, you’d think.
So my answer was, well, you cannot trade that way. You just cannot, because it means that you are now having a predefined … in your mind, you are set on the U.S. dollar falling, and it’s quite a dangerous way to trade because how does anybody know what’s going to happen?
Some examples from the last 17 years
Give you some prime examples on this over the last number of years. So I’ve been trading for nearly 17 years and over that time, to be honest, actually, when I started trading, the U.S. dollar was talked down massively at that time. Everybody was talking up the Euro, talking up the pound, talking down the U.S. dollar, and that’s not really happened. Within certain times over those last 17 years, yes, the U.S. dollar’s declined, but then it’s strengthened.
The problem is, you cannot have that bigger picture idea, and back when I started trading, the monthly non-farm payroll, as it was called back then, the U.S. monthly unemployment data, the U.S. jobs news back then all the time was terrible. Huge numbers of job losses, and people were saying, “It’s the end of the U.S. dollar. The Euro’s going to take over. The new Euro, all these amalgamated countries. It’s the new thing to do. You’ve got to be on to the Euro.”
The EUR/USD got very high in 2008
So, give you some examples. Back then, the Euro got as high as 1.60. It got very, very high, the Euro against U.S. dollar, 1.60. Then, from mid-2008 onwards, if you look at a monthly chart, overall, all it’s done is fallen. Like I mentioned just now, yes, there have been times where the Euro-U.S. dollar has gone up, and therefore the Euro is strengthened, the U.S. is weakened. But if you take the bigger picture since mid-2008, when the Euro-U.S. dollar hit just on 1.60, all it’s done since then is fallen. So that tells you that actually, what’s happening is the Euro is weakening and the U.S. dollar is strengthening. So if I had that bigger picture view back then of the U.S. dollar as weakening and declining, for the last 12 years, in general, I would have been wrong. So very, very dangerous thought process to go into there.
The GBP/USD went over 2.0000
Another example, the pound-U.S. dollar. Back in 2007, it went over two. So the rate of the pound-U.S. dollar was over two, 2.000. It went over that level and then it crashed to 1.14. So all it’s done is the pound’s dropped, the U.S. has strengthened. Again, everybody said the U.S. dollar would weaken, and all it’s actually done, again, bigger picture, and there’s been fluctuations, yes, within that time, but bigger picture, the pound’s dropped, the U.S. dollar has strengthened.
Then, of course, we add Brexit into that, and everybody again saying, now, that the U.S. was going to probably strengthen against the pound, therefore now the pound’s going to weaken. But if you look at what’s happened over the last month or so, the pound-U.S. dollar has actually strengthened. So now we get this complete confusion. Now we’re looking for, with Brexit, it’s all happened and Britain’s by itself, the pound’s going to crash even more. Yet the last month to right now, at the end of July 2020, it’s telling us that the pound’s now coming back with strength again.
What does this tell you as a trader?
So put all that into a big mix together, what do you get out of that? Well, you can basically get out of that that, for me, as a technical trader, I am trading completely and utterly what the charts tell me. Why? Well, because it then takes my opinion out of it. My opinion of what’s happening to the U.S. dollar, or the guy that was on the webinar today, his opinion that the U.S. dollar’s going to weaken over the next 12 months, it might. But until we get to July and August 2021, we don’t know what we’re talking about right now is going to be true or not. But what we can do is look at the charts and see what the charts are telling us.
Even if you wanted to trade longer term, like monthly charts and weekly charts, you still need to look at what they are telling you and trade accordingly to that. I think if anybody just suddenly took a position on any of the U.S. dollar pairs for the U.S. dollar to weaken, and just did it right now, first of all, why would you do that? Secondly, how are you going to manage that? Thirdly, which pairs are you going to trade? Because if you think that the U.S. is going to weaken over the next 12 months, you really need to be sure that the currency you’re trading against is going to strengthen.
Now, I don’t see a huge amount of strength right now in the Australian economy over there. It’s not looking too good. The New Zealand economy is not looking particularly great right now. Europe’s not looking great. Britain’s in a bit of a mess right now. Interest rates in Japan are negative. Switzerland’s the same. So which pair are you actually going to trade if all you want to do is say the U.S. dollar’s going to weaken? Makes it hard, doesn’t it?
But you can go and look at your charts. You can identify trends. You can identify pullbacks. You can identify reversals. By taking those positions as a technical trader, you are trading what you see, not what you think. It’s a big difference. So I hope that helps. If you have any questions just like that, and you’d like me to cover them on future videos and podcasts, just drop me an email, [email protected], and I’d be glad to help. I’ll see this time next week. Bye for now.
Episode Title: #377: Will the US Dollar Fall Over the Next 12 Months?